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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."