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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd